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Tough spot with KKs deep ITM, getting cold 4bet by 1% 3bet player over 233 hands

Nas47

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February 20, 2018 - 2:57 pm

The title says it mostly. The player cold 4betting has been quite passive and cautious on the table. If he shoved I would not be happy but I think I just sigh call as he could have AK, QQ and possibly JJ or TT however unlikely. When he min 4bets me alarm bells started to go off and I was not happy. I wanted to fold as the tournament was quite deep and I had a decent stack. At the same time I had KKs. Do we just accept we are mostly getting coolered in these spots and gii?

PokerStars – 4500/9000 Ante 900 NL – Holdem – 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

MP: 49.67 BB (VPIP: 19.35, PFR: 13.33, 3Bet Preflop: 7.32, Hands: 93)
MP+1: 14.69 BB (VPIP: 11.76, PFR: 10.00, 3Bet Preflop: 13.64, Hands: 51)
MP+2: 49.37 BB (VPIP: 28.70, PFR: 13.84, 3Bet Preflop: 5.88, Hands: 231)
CO: 47.04 BB
BTN: 38.87 BB (VPIP: 22.95, PFR: 13.33, 3Bet Preflop: 3.51, Hands: 122)
Hero (SB): 61.55 BB
BB: 46.7 BB (VPIP: 20.78, PFR: 13.48, 3Bet Preflop: 1.02, Hands: 233)
UTG: 31.12 BB (VPIP: 16.67, PFR: 8.33, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 12)
UTG+1: 43.19 BB (VPIP: 31.25, PFR: 22.58, 3Bet Preflop: 19.05, Hands: 32)

9 players post ante of 0 BB, Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.4 BB) Hero has K heart K diamond

fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, CO raises to 2.2 BB, fold, Hero raises to 7 BB, BB raises to 16 BB, fold, Hero raises to 61.45 BB and is all-in, BB calls 30.6 BB and is all-in

Flop: (96.3 BB, 2 players) 4 spade 9 club 2 spade

Turn: (96.3 BB, 2 players) J spade

River: (96.3 BB, 2 players) 6 spade

[spoil]Hero shows K heart K diamond (One Pair, Kings)
(Pre 18%, Flop 8%, Turn 2%)
BB shows A diamond A spade (Flush, Ace High)
(Pre 82%, Flop 92%, Turn 98%)
BB wins 96.3 BB
[/spoil]

theginger45

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February 27, 2018 - 12:30 pm

Kind of a brutal spot. I think we need to examine the validity of our sample size.

If villain’s 3-bet is 1.02%, that means they’ve 3-bet once in 98 hands (1/98 = 1.02%). For villain to have a somewhat close to average 3-bet %, they would need to have 3-bet roughly 5 times for around a 5% 3-bet frequency, and for a high 3-bet % they would need to 3-bet roughly 10 times out of those 98 opportunities.

Ask yourself the question, is it possible that this player is actually not as tight as they may seem, and has just been card dead over those 98 spots, to the point where a 5% 3-bet becomes 1%? Absolutely. In fact, the incidence of players who actually do reflect a 1% 3-bet frequency over a large sample of hands is most likely much smaller than the likelihood of a player with average preflop aggression only 3-betting once in 98 opportunities.

As a result, I think it’s unlikely that 1% figure represents this player’s true 3-bet frequency. This is also a cold 4-bet spot rather than a 3-bet spot, which is a slight shift. I think ultimately with stacks and positions being as they are, we don’t have enough information to put this player on exactly KK+ here, meaning we can’t really fold this spot.

Nas47

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March 5, 2018 - 4:21 pm

Thanks for the analysis.

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