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Turn bet sizing with the nuts
piefarmer
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May 18, 2013 - 1:41 am
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First time trying to post a hand history and I failed miserably with the converter. Sorry for the plain text.
 
Early in the tourney.  No specific read on the opponents. Average stack size is about 6000 chips. On hero's previous BB, he got it all in vs. SB with KK and held.
Interested in everyone's thoughts on how to play when I turn the nuts. I'm also interested in how to proceed on the river if we get there.
Lastly, I'm a novice trying to learn so I welcome comments on any other aspect of the hand, including my flop underbet.
 
$3,000 GTD Deepstack Turbo $10 + $1 -- 9 Max -- Table 11 -- 0/100/200 NL Hold'em 

Button: (11,509 in chips) 
SB: (4,800 in chips) 
BB: Hero (9,012 in chips) 
UTG: (5,825 in chips) 
UTG+1: (4,735 in chips) 
MP1: (7,000 in chips) 
MP2: (5,275 in chips) 
MP3: (10,173 in chips) 
CO: (4,262 in chips) 
Seat 2: posts small blind 100
Hero: posts big blind 200
Dealt to Hero [Qc,Ks]
UTG folds
UTG+1 folds
UTG+2 folds
MP1 folds
MP2 folds
MP3 folds
Button raises to 450
SB calls 350
Hero calls 250
*** FLOP ($1,350) *** [Kd,Kh,3h]
SB checks
Hero bets 200
Button calls 200
SB folds
*** TURN ($1,750)*** [Qh]
Hero???
packallama
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May 18, 2013 - 2:20 am
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Preflop is ok. I really like squeezing because it is a BU open and calling a SB jam. I dislike your min-bet flop lead beacuse it will likely discourage BU from continuation betting with a lot of his air and ace highs. A few years ago I wouldn't have minded a the min-bet flop lead because people attacked them relentlessly. More recently it seems that players continue after min-betting and they are attacked less often. The BU will be more likely to cb flop when checked to than raise a your bet. Unless you have specific reads that BU will percieve your lead as really weak then I would check with the intention of raising in this spot. If BU were a very passive player then leading this flop a normal size would be good to get value from ace highs. Thus, min-bet leading the flop accomplishes the exact opposite of what you are looking for. 

Once we get to the turn, it's an easy bet. Villain is unlikely to have a pair just calling the flop so his range will mainly contain ace highs and flop floats. A lot of his floats will have picked up equity because the the most likely hands to float are hands with the backdoor equity (hands like: QJ and JhTx). BU's is likely to have a staight and/or flushdraw, Qx, or ace high possibly with a heart. He will likely check all of his ace highs on the turn, bet Qx for value, and bluff with draws and air. Randoms are more likely to call down rather than bluff so going for value on the turn and river is likely the best play. I would go around 1050 on the turn and 2300 on the river. 

piefarmer
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May 18, 2013 - 1:48 pm
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Thanks Pack,
I agree with the pre-flop rebuke. I was indeed trying to appear weak, hoping to get raised. Silly really. Since then I’ve read or heard Andrew Brokos talk about how many players primarily donk lead (I think regardless of size) with strength, so I did indeed undermine my own goal.
The reason for my post was to analyze how much value I may have missed on the entire hand, but I thought that was too broad, which is why I focused the question on the turn.
Thanks for the input!

markconkle
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May 19, 2013 - 9:36 pm
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I definitely agree the donklead was bad, and checkraising is better.  One thing I would do differently than packallama is bet a bit more on turn, maybe 1200, then just shove the river.  In my experience, people are more like to get in 45BB because the blinds are rising fast.  I think he'll have a hard time folding any flush, worse full house, or straight if he hits one.  I don't honestly think he's calling three streets here with just a queen (unless Q hits the river, and then I think he's calling a shove).  

I just think this is a spot where he doesn't call 2300 3 times as often as he calls 7000, so we make more money with the overbet.

piefarmer
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May 19, 2013 - 10:18 pm
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Mark,
Thanks for the input. In hindsight, I agree with what you say.
In the moment, I was thinking about the board. I’ve seen these paired broadway boards and/or 3 flush boards get checked through on multiple streets because players are frozen. At this level, many players are scared of this board, even it is unlikely to have hit anyone.
I’m still trying to figure out underbetting and overbetting. Your input helps and I appreciate it.

FkCoolers
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May 20, 2013 - 9:09 am
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I think min betting flop and then betting big on turn looks way too trappy/strong. 

I'd almost be more inclined to min bet since a flush got there and see if the button decides to rep it or, even better, he has it. 

Of course, if the button sucks we don't need to worry about balance and we can bet bigger because those players are basically playing the strength of their own hand without putting much thought into what someone else may have. 

FkCoolers
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May 20, 2013 - 9:13 am
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piefarmer said:

Mark,
Thanks for the input. In hindsight, I agree with what you say.
In the moment, I was thinking about the board. I've seen these paired broadway boards and/or 3 flush boards get checked through on multiple streets because players are frozen. At this level, many players are scared of this board, even it is unlikely to have hit anyone.
I'm still trying to figure out underbetting and overbetting. Your input helps and I appreciate it.

In response to underbetting or overbetting I'd say this …

You basically have this board locked down. You have blockers to like every single Kx and Qx combo so it's super unlikely villain has trip kings here. QQ really isn't even worth considering. 

3's full is a small possibility. 

Flush draws are more likely than all the hands I've mentioned. Peeling something like JT or a similar hand that needs to go runner runner is really stupid and not worth considering until you see a player actually do it. 

So basically … underbetting would seem better here since there aren't many strong hands he can have.

Whereas if the board was something like: K 3 2 A 8 and you had a set of 2's or 3's, overbetting would be such a better option since there are lots of hands your opponent could have that look strong to him. 

packallama
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May 20, 2013 - 3:05 pm
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I think you guys are a bit ambitious of getting the button to bluff the turn after he just called the flop. In terms of value hands, he will have raised most of his flushdraws on the flop so he rarely has a flush or even much of a value hand other than ace high and the occasional Qx. I don't think it is far fetched whatsoever that villain peeled the min-bet on the flop with a hand like QJ figuring it is the best hand a lot of the time. We shouldn't be betting so big when we have the board crushed. We should be value targetting his ace highs on the turn because that is what most of his range is comprised of. Betting so large just blows them off the hand unless villain understands that a large bet is polarizing and is willing to hero call down to the river(very very very unlikely).

piefarmer
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May 22, 2013 - 8:15 am
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I opted to bet $666 into the $1750 pot.  Villain called.  

 

River was the Qspades.  

 

I bet pot on the river and villain folded.

 

Thanks for the feedback.

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