I feel like he could have led worse Qx, JT, KT, 9x … 

Our hand is a bet underrepped and there are enough worse hands in his range to call here, I think. 

I don’t think raising gets worse hands to call enough since we don’t have history. 

I agree he could bet any of those (though I’m not ahead of 9x) on the turn IF he got there with them. I think the flop check-call is much more consistent with either a slowplayed monster or an extremely good no-pair hand (AK/AQ) than with two random overs that could easily be dominated by my bluffing range.

Also, if I raised, it wouldn’t be for value 🙂

Thanks, Nutz. I hope it will be helpful to you if I ask a few questions/point out a few seeming inconsistencies in your response. Hopefully it will be some good for thought for you.

1. “I feel he will c/c his whole range on a 993hh flop.” I don't see where this comes from. I think it's pretty rare in general to see the pre-flop raiser check and call the flop, especially a really dry flop. Perhaps you've heard of the Gap Concept? It takes a better hand to call than to raise? (or in this case bet). The idea is that if he's going to continue with overcards that missed the flop, usually he'd prefer to be the one betting and give himself the chance to win the pot immediately rather than call a bet.

2. “The turn bet seems a little odd if he has a 9, unless he's afraid of you checking behind your flush draws.” This is a good observation, and I think you can get more broad about it. He's going to be thinking about not just 9s (of which he probably doesn't have many) but also AA, KK, and AQ, if he plays those this way, as monsters. And his concern wouldn't just be that I'd check behind flush draws, of which I don't have many (look at the range you gave me and then see how small the % of flush draw hands is) but also a lot of my medium pairs that might be willing to call down two more bets but will gladly take a free card. Just because I bet the flop is no guarantee I'll be the turn, especially when my flop bet was so small and the turn is a kind of scary card for my pocket pairs.

3. ” I would put him straight forward on TT+ or AK/AQ” This seems inconsistent with your claim that'd c/c his whole range. Or are you saying these are the only hands you'd think he'd bet on the turn? 

4. “The river bet 40% of pot seems like value or missed draws” Given the TT+/AQ+ read, “missed draws” would have to be exactly AK, right? 

piefarmer said:

Andrew,

First, I do want to question the preflop call. Not that it's wrong, but for my own education.  Can you apply the gap concept here?  Is AQo strong enough to just call?  Is having position on him enough that you can call versus raise?  Or is it just the tournament dynamic at play here? Knowing when to flat a preflop raiser is a weakness, so please forgive my naivete.

 

Regarding the hand as played, the flop suggests he has a slowplayed monster or marginal/showdown hand, with a small possibility of air/draws. The turn lead shfits the likely hand toward monsters and air/draws. If you would classify the flop check as suspicious and the turn lead as sudden or unexpected, then we have more signs of a monster.  But the bet sizings are not compensating for the missed bet on the flop, and suggest to me vilain has a good but non-monster hand.  

 

I agree with the consensus that you should call.

I do think AQ is strong enough to call. I imagine V raises at least AJ here if not some weaker ones if I'm right about his stealing range. That helps considerably, as does position. I'm also going to flat a lot of PPs in this spot, including quite possibly the big ones, so I don't feel too vulnerable to bluffs when I miss the flop. Even if I fold AQ to a worse hand on a missed flop, I know there's a lot in my range I wouldn't fold.

I don't like raising because I don't think my hand is good enough to get all-in, but he may 4B some hands that I'd rather not fold against (TT and JJ, for instance). Plus I'd prefer to play smaller pots against one of the only guys who can bust me when the field is so weak in general.

duggs said:

this is a really weird hand, whats the reasoning for the flop bet? v someone that is decent i got see him almost ever c/f this texture especially if his range is super wide, which means he is either c/c or c/r and we either have to fold or dont really get called by worse. so i probably check back flop and try realise our equity/bluff catch some streets

The better a player is, the less likely he is to “never” or “always” do anything. I contend that my flatting range is stronger than his raising range, plus I have position, so I don't see why he shouldn't check-fold the bottom of his range, especially if his range is super-wide. Betting has some protection value (admittedly I probably dominate a lot of his flop folding range but he may have some suited connectors or something with 6 outs) and also sets me up to barrel him if I get the sense that he's trying to show down a mid-pair cheaply. I don't think checking is bad by any means though.

Nice post, Florian. I'll respond to a few points in bold below.

florianm1 said:

as you said he is pretty decent and aggressive i assume his opening range to be about 22.5% something like
AA-22,AKo-A9o,KQo-KJo,QJo,JTo,T9o,AKs-A2s,KQs-K9s,QJs-QTs,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,76s,65s,54s

 

I think that's a little wide for UTG, even in a decent steal spot. At the very least I'd drop the weaker suited connectors, and the T9o/JTo. Probably not opening K9s or 100% of Axs either. 15-17% seems more right to me.

 

just for general purpose we should know that this range hits the flop decently about 45.2% of the time.

 

Does AK count as decently? Cuz I think that's a reasonably strong hand in this spot, probably stronger than small pairs.

heros perceived range is something like
AA-22,AKo-AQo,KQo,AKs-ATs,A5s-A2s,KQs-KTs,QJs-QTs,JTs,T9s,98s with AA,KK and AKs being 3bet about 50% of the time
heros range hits the flop slightly more often about 48% of the time if we do flat AA,KK and AKs 50% of the time. if not we are about the same

in this range there are a lot of hands which we are dominating. so if we 3bet here would get lots of those hands to fold. I dont think that this villain as described would put it in with worse
also if we 3bet and he flats SPR gets a bit more akward.

so i def lean on flatting pre to keep all his weaker hands in.

well said regarding call vs 3b

on the flop he has TP+ about 20% of the time.

we would assume he bets all his air hands and probably all his draws. as the board is rather dry i guess he c/calls 22,44-88 and his strong hands TT+,33,99,A9s,K9s

I think he c/fs air sometimes, but I don't see him every check-calling it. Remember though that I'm not treating AK/AQ as air. I also think the smaller pairs might bet rather than check. Even TT/JJ don't seem strong enough to slowplay to me.

if we look at heros perceived range we would assume that he bets his entire preflop range here.

so as we go back to villain his c/call range is.

on the turn villain leads into us. given his flop range he has TP+ here 43% of the time

if villain thinks that hero bets his entire range and is a decent hand reader then he should know that this turn did improve a lot of heros range.
All Qx got there or picked up outs.

It's also a scare card for a lot of my range.

so this are all hands hero calls or bets if checked to.

but hero would check behind most prob all his draws and weak made hands for pot control.

Actually Hero would barrel most of those hands but maybe Villain doesn't know that!

as hero is most likely calling with more hands then he is betting this is a very good spot for hero to go for a donk bet as a value bet.

Assuming you mean “Villain” the second time you say “Hero”, I agree.

we should also realize that almost his entire range he gets to the flop just improved to TP+(72%).

so he is clearly value betting here without having draws in his range as i assume he would most likely have bet them on the flop.

after hero calls the turn bet his perceived range is a hand with SD value or a draw.

so villain has two options:

check/call vs the missed draws or bet for value vs most SD hand.
as there are more SD hands in heros range then missed draws he clearly value bets

just to add: on the river if we call our call needs to work 28% of the time to be BE. if he assume he bets AA-99,33,T9o,A9s,K9s,T9s,98s that are 40 combos and we are good vs 12 so we have a marginal
+EV call but i doubt he bets TT,JJ

further we should also consider some strategic points.

if we hero fold we are still sitting with around 40BB and are well above average and can use our skill edge.

if we call and are most likely beaten then we are down to about 20BB and have to play a higher variance style with reshoving

This might not be as bad as you think since the field in general is not good at shortstacked play. 7BB shoves will have a lot more fold equity than they should, so being short-stacked in this field isn't as bad as when everyone knows how to make light calls against late position shoves.

given your initial read vs the field and this opponent i heavily tend towards a fold

hope this somewhat long post makes sence and is not to confusing

cheers