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(0 votes) 
May 6, 2015
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Hero percieves villain to be a “fun” player. Loose aggressive. Willing to play almost any two from almost any position. Definitely willing to play any A.
Hero, at this time, is table captain. Hero has won pots without having to show his cards. When hero has shown cards, has had the best hand. Hero has heard teeth sucking and mumbling from the table when he’s won pots.
Blinds are 400/800
Hero and Villain have approx 60k in chips
Villain UTG raises to 2000
Everyone folds to Hero
Hero is in late position with AdAh
Hero raises to 10,000
Folds back to Villain who Flat calls the 10k.
21,200 in pot.
Flop is QhJh9c
Villain donk bets for 10k
Hero tanks for a while and flats the 10k to keep the pot from getting bloated.
Pot is 41,200
Turn is the 10d
Villain bets 25k…….
At this point what is villains perceived range?
What should Hero do at this point?
May 12, 2015
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He raised pre and called a 3 bet, so I’d put him on big pairs. I can’t imagine him doing this with suited connectors or small/middle pairs. When he donk bets the flop, it sure looks like he has KK, QQ, or JJ. If he had 10 10 he would probably check and hope to see a free card. Is this a value bet? KK with a straight draw is very strong. QQ or JJ gives him a big set. When the turn brings a 10 and he bets out 25k, this would basically puts hero all in. I say villain has KK.
FFFFFFFFFFOLD!
January 2, 2017
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Hi, I’ll take a run at this:
Villain range – you say he’s playing any two from any position but is he open-raising tighter? How about something like this, assuming he’ll limp the more drawy-suited hands…: 55+, A2s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s, ATo+, A5o-A2o, KTo+, QJo, JTo, T9o, 98o, 87o, 76o, 65o – 27%, 360 combos — is this too wide or too tight?
Hero: AA
Villain flatting range – the way you describe it I think you feel that he’s gonna flat anything he opened with, because he wants to play you? I’m gonna discount the premiums tho, although maybe I shouldn’t… 55+, A2s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s, ATo+, KJo+, QJo; Weights: AA:75%, KK:75%, QQ:75%
So assuming I’m close, you’re 84/16% to the good.
Flop, knowing nothing more, you’re 70/30 to the good, again assuming I have his range close.
What’s villain donking halfpot the flop with? 88+, AJs+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, ATo+, KJo+, QJo; Weights: AA:75%, KK:75%, QQ:25%, JJ:25%, 99:25%, AKs:25%, AKo:25% — I’m weighting the made hands cuz I think it’s more likely he’d check/raise or check/call and raise the turn… Again assuming I’m close, you’re 63/36 to the good, so the call works.
Turn, knowing nothing else, you’re now 71/28 to the bad.
I feel like he’s betting: 99+, AKs, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, AKo, KJo+, QJo; Weights: AA:75%, KK:75%, QQ:25%, JJ:25%, 99:25%, AKs:25%, AKo:25%.
If we adjust his 3bet calling range to include many more suited hands, then maybe he’s here with any two hearts: 99+, AKs, KJs+, KhTh-Kh2h, QJs, QhTh-Qh2h, JTs, Jh9h-Jh2h, T9s, Th8h-Th2h, 9h2h+, 8h2h+, 7h4h+, 6h4h+, 5h4h, AKo, KJo+, QJo; Weights: AA:75%, KK:75%, QQ:25%, JJ:25%, 99:25%, AKs:25%, AKo:25% — he’s still 75% equity here, even with a bunch of heart combos.
All his other draws came in, his monster hands are beating you, and your only outs likely are Ks that he doesn’t already have. He’s giving you 3:1 odds…
Seems like a pretty clear fold?
July 7, 2012
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Didnt read through all of the above replies but the sentiment is the same……..this is the worst possible board run out for your hand and his ‘fishy’ preflop calling range, sigh fold and move on.
TPE Pro
August 25, 2012
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I like your big 3-bet sizing versus this player, it seems good in this spot although versus a reg it would be pretty bad.
Flop is not a great spot, villain has a lot of two-pairs but also some pair+draw type hands, probably not many sets but he can likely have at least the occasional combo of straights here. I don’t think we can fold, but I like not raising.
Turn is a clear fold. You can have some straight combos here (assuming you play KK the same way) so you can protect yourself with those, and regardless I think it’s logical to assume villain has virtually no bluffs – they’d need to have 77 or below, or some kind of Ah2h-Ah7h combo, but you have the Ah so there’s almost none of that.
Fold and move on. No need to get super out of line against weak players. He’ll give you your chips back soon enough.
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