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January 2, 2017
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Unfortunately I don’t have a villain read – I have to start saving my stats on villains when I save the hand histories for review.
In retrospect I feel like I made a mistake on the river but curious as to your thoughts.
Poker Stars, $6.82 Buy-in (200/400 blinds, 50 ante)
No Limit Hold’em Tournament, 4 Players
Poker Tools by CardRunners – …..nners.com/
CO: 67,273 (168.2 bb) BTN: 66,983 (167.5 bb) SB: 50,813 (127 bb) Hero (BB): 87,918 (219.8 bb)
Preflop: Hero is BB with Kh Ac CO folds, BTN raises to 928, SB folds, Hero calls 528
Flop: (2,256) 6c Th 9s (2 players) Hero checks, BTN bets 2,256, Hero calls 2,256
Turn: (6,768) Ks (2 players) Hero checks, BTN bets 3,384, Hero calls 3,384
River: (13,536) Qd (2 players) Hero checks, BTN bets 6,768, Hero ??
TPE Management
April 6, 2010
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Preflop I like. I don’t mind floating this flop, my only concern is that his bet is so large (pot) that I think it is less likely to be just a standard cbet with air. Once we do call I think check calling turn is fine. River looks like pure value to me. Seems like a bad board to go three streets on, especially since the straight comes in. I’m having a hard time coming up with many hands that we beat. I dont think he does this with any smaller pairs, so our best hope is to chop, but i think we are beat here and fold.
January 2, 2017
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I thought I’d do a full run out and see if a call or fold (or maybe bluff raise!) makes sense.
BTN 2.2x raise, 4 handed. Range: 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q6s+, J7s+, T8s+, 97s+, 86s+, 76s, 65s, 54s, A2o+, KTo+, QJo, JTo, T9o, 98o, 87o, 76o, 65o
My range in the BB here is going to be: 22+, A2s+, K6s+, Q8s+, J8s+, T8s+, 97s+, 86s+, 75s+, 65s, 54s, A2o+, KJo+, QJo, JTo, T9o, 98o, 87o, 76o; Weights: AA:50%, KK:50%, QQ:50%, JJ:50% – 400 combos. After having done this a few times in this spot I feel like these wide BB calling ranges might be a little too wide, as I end up check/floating a lot of marginal hands. But maybe against a BTN open in a 4-handed game, this is ok? I’m be likely to tighten up a little bit in the future, shaving off a few combos in those Qxs/Jxs spots.
Going to the flop we’re basically 50/50
On the flop – 6c Th 9s – we’re still about 50/50.
We check, BTN bets pot. Let’s say his range becomes: JJ+, 88-77, 55, A9s+, A6s, K9s+, K6s, Q9s+, Q6s, J9s+, T8s, 97s+, 86s, 76s, 65s, A9o+, A6o, KTo+, QJo, JTo, 98o, 76o, 65o. That might be tighter than necessary but let’s assume he’s going to slowplay his monsters and bet pot to marginals and draws. I think you’re right – air would probably be a 1/3 – 1/2 pot bet. But a pot bet to me says he didn’t hit the board that well.
We shave off 30% of our range, leaving us with about 270 combos.
Value/Monsters: TT-99, 66, T9s, 87s, T9o, 87o — 34 combos
Marginals: JJ+, 88-77, A9s+, A6s, KTs-K9s, K6s, QTs-Q9s, J9s+, T8s+, 97s+, 86s, 76s, 65s, ATo+, A6o, JTo, 98o, 76o; Weights: AA:50%, KK:50%, QQ:50%, JJ:50% – 167 combos
Bluffs and draws: As8s-As7s, As5s-As2s, Ah8h-Ah7h, Ah5h-Ah2h, Ac8c-Ac7c, Ac5c-Ac2c, KJs+, QJs, KJo+, QJo – 66 combos
Revised range against range, we’re now slightly ahead – 53/47
On the turn – Ks – our equity before betting is about the same (range-wise).
Again we check and again villain bets, this time about half pot – so his bets are going down in size. To me that seems like a good thing for us. Let’s say he’s this now: JJ+, 88-77, AKs, AsQs-As9s, K9s+, Q9s+, J9s+, 76s, A9o+, KTo+, QJo, JTo, 76o
We shave another 30% out of our range and keep playing with 190 combos
Our value hands: KK, TT-99, 66, KTs-K9s, K6s, QJs, 87s, QJo, 87o; Weights: KK:50% – 50 combos
Marginals: AA, QQ-JJ, A9s+, QTs, JTs, T9s, ATo+, JTo, T9o; Weights: AA:50%, QQ:50%, JJ:50% — 92 combos
Bluffs and draws: As8s-As2s, KJs+, 9s7s+, 8s6s, 7s6s, 6s5s, KJo+, 98o, 76o — 52 combos
We’re now 55% to the good, assuming this all tracks. Since our AKo hand is in the middle of our marginal hands, and since his half pot bet feels a little weaker, I think the call is good.
River is Qd. Takes our equity down by 5% before action.
We check again and he bets 1/2 pot again… Let’s say his range is now: JJ+, AKs, AsQs-AsJs, K9s+, Q9s+, J9s+, AJo+, KTo+, QJo, JTo – kinda everything beating our specific hand. But let’s see where we end up once we wack down our range one more time.
We want to call (or raise) with 130 combos. Of those:
Value: KK-TT, AJs, KJs, QJs, JTs, AJo, KJo, QJo, JTo; Weights: KK:50%, QQ:50%, JJ:50% — 61 combos — the two pair hands and the lower sets are now marginal…
Marginal/bluffcatchers: AA, 99, 66, AKs, KQs, KTs-K9s, K6s, QTs, T9s, KQo, T9o; Weights: AA:50% – 39 combos
Bluffs to check/raise: As8s-As2s, 9s7s+, 8s6s, 7s6s, 6s5s, 98o, 76o — 28 combos
I ended up choosing AKs to fill out my marginal/bluffcatchers. AKo gets folded. Our range against his range is now 43/57 to the bad.
So this looks like a good fold here too.
Hopefully that all made sense. A lot more work than your response but sometimes good to run the process and see whether logic and intuition match.
jt
TPE Pro
August 25, 2012
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I like the math you’ve done there, well done for going through all of that. It’s a good habit to get into. Having said that, I think a GTO analysis is going to be of limited use in a $7 game where we can achieve a much greater EV by looking into the obvious weaknesses in our opponent’s game. I think your analysis is based on a lot of incorrect assumptions, and it’s worth noting that we don’t necessarily have to have both a calling range and a raising range in every spot in order to be playing unexploitably.
Firstly, I imagine 3-betting preflop is better than calling. If you’re not 3-betting this hand then you probably have virtually no 3-betting range preflop in this spot, which is a pretty difficult reality to deal with in a 4-max game.
On the flop, I think we can make some easy baseline reads on villain’s range – it’s not likely to be very well-constructed. The sizing is pretty awful, and we block a lot of villain’s potentially c-bet bluffing hands, so it’s reasonable to suggest the bet is a lot stronger than it would usually be. It’s also unlikely villain is just going to shut down on the turn, since a lot of villain’s potential bluffs are going to retain equity (QJ, J8, etc) and barrel again. I think you’re way off base regarding villain’s flop betting range – I think a bigger bet is more likely to be a strong hand protecting itself on this board, and I think some of the hands you’ve listed (like some of those middle-pair and bottom-pair hands) are in villain’s range with close to 0% frequency.
As a result, I would prefer to reduce my check-calling frequency on this flop and assume that villain’s range is likely to be a lot stronger than it should be here – I’d probably fold this hand, even despite how close it might be to the top of our range. Against a smaller c-bet, it’s a much more comfortable spot, but when people mash the pot button they very rarely tend to just check down future streets. It’s also significant that it’s a dynamic board – any 9, 7, J or Q on the turn puts a lot of straights out there, so there are some turn cards on which your hand will occasionally be drawing dead.
On the turn we can’t consider folding, but the most significant draw did get there, strengthening villain’s range. Once again, we also block many of villain’s bluffs – AQ and AJ.
On river, I don’t think it’s really feasible to consider calling here. We have plenty of Jx hands in our range – we should have every combo of JT in the deck, plus some others – so I think we would need an exceptional read here in order to call with one pair. I’d be shocked if we’re ever good here against 95% of villains.
July 12, 2013
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I like the play pre, post and turn… But in terms of board texture and his flop CB sizing it’s hard to think of a hands you beat. Folding this run out can never be a mistake.
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