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February 4, 2013
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Poker Stars $100+$9 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t150/t300 Blinds + t25 - 9 players - TournamentPokerEdge.com Hand History Converter
Poker Own U (UTG): BB = 16.6, t4992 villepn (UTG+1): BB = 29.5, t8860 Pimmss (UTG+2): BB = 15.9, t4774 Hero (MP1): BB = 40.1, t12023 solvafer (MP2): BB = 87.0, t26085 Marksman M (CO): BB = 14.7, t4422 R0B_45 (BTN): BB = 20.3, t6098 markovitsus (SB): BB = 28.9, t8675 flerrehuve (BB): BB = 12.5, t3760
Pre Flop: (t675) Hero is MP1 with AKo
3 folds, Hero raises to t600, MP2 raises to t1800, 2 folds, SB raises to t8650 all in, 1 fold, Hero raises to t11998 all in
solvafer is playing 9/6 over a sample of 60 hands
markovitsus is playing 16/12 over a sample of 52 hands
I am playing 18/12
Hi guys,
I have played very few hands at this table when this hand appears so no gameflow info. I wonder if AK should be a shove in a situation like this where I am in a position to possibly win a huge pot or loose a very healthy stack where I might be flipping at best. I think it is an easy shove and a very difficult fold generally.
Arguments for shove:
- It is likely that markovitsus does not give credit to solvafer's 3bet and sees this as a good opportunity to squeeze.
I think he shoves TT, JJ, QQ, AK and maybe AQs and KK. He should also realize that when he shoves he puts me
in a polarised situation because I have the bigstack behind me. This could possibly make him shove slightly more wide.
- In regards to the 3bet from solvafer I'm sure he does not always have to have a hand here. The stats are over a
too small sample and from other tournaments so they do not reflect his play with this stack. If solvafer should call
I am likely to be crushed or perhaps he has AK, however for given reasons he is folding more often making his 3bet
a nice added value to the pot.
Interested to hear what you think
October 21, 2012
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I would fold.
TPE Management
April 6, 2010
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I actually think I would fold too. Our stack is fine when we fold, Im assumign we have a skill edge on the table, so even if we are flipping do we really need to take huge flips for 40bbs each when we can probably pick up chips without flipping later?
Plus with a guy running 9/6, flipping is the BEST we can hope for.
first off, we should throw away the HUD stats here. 52 and 60 hands means nothing and we arent sure if these hands were played pre ante or post. All of this is crucial information so I'm 100% looking past thes HUD stats as we just do not have enough information. Had we had 300 hands with both opponents and could identify if they were pre or post ante, we could find a fold.
HAVING SAID THAT…….
lets look at table dynamics for a second. Solvafer has a massive stack and one of the only players he can abuse is the hero.
Poker Own U (UTG): BB = 16.6, t4992 villepn (UTG+1): BB = 29.5, t8860 Pimmss (UTG+2): BB = 15.9, t4774 Hero (MP1): BB = 40.1, t12023 solvafer (MP2): BB = 87.0, t26085 Marksman M (CO): BB = 14.7, t4422 R0B_45 (BTN): BB = 20.3, t6098 markovitsus (SB): BB = 28.9, t8675 flerrehuve (BB): BB = 12.5, t3760
YOU have the perfect stack for him to 3 bet. If you watch many regs play, great regs with stacks will
always go to war with fellow big stacks. Its simple, the big stacks are opening the most. This is why I tell
my students to adjust the HUD to blind levels or based on how many bbs a player has pre or post ante. Players adjust
their play based on having massive stacks!
Based on the stacks, we should assume that ak takes a shit on solvafers 3 betting range. So how does this look
to Marksman... Thats the tough ?, If he is really observant he can pick up on the fact that Solvafer is abusing the fact
that he has a huge stack so a cold 4 bet here with like a10 suited is the stone nuts. Many pairs, random broadways could
all be in his range. We should be getting all of our chips in here with ak. ALL OF THEM
I'm not worried about solvafer and if we are flipping with markovitsus we are getting a great price. Fact is
we are ahead of this cold 4 shoving range so often that you couldn't pay me to fold ak here. Im not trying to flip
here either, im simply trying to make the best decision in every hand i play in order to maximize profits. AKA win the mtt!!!!!!
Based on that we have to get ak in here.
gl to u
AZN
October 21, 2012
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I think the most important piece of information is how much Hero has opened. Yes he is a big stack, but he says he has played very few hands. If these guys are good, they are not playing back at someone who looks like a nit. If these guys are bad, they are not playing back period. Either way, I think they are strong here.
This looks a lot like a spot big dog would find himself in where he would call off and win a massive flip for all the chips and go on to win the tournament. So if this was Casey who opens so much that I could see a guy cold 4 betting here with ATs, I would agree with Marc. (this is also a huge argument for opening as much as big dog does)
But this is a guy who has played very few hands.
Is MP2 3betting 3x light here knowing he has to call all the reshove stacks behind?
Given that, is SB shoving 30bb light into a tight opener and a big stack who may feel committed to call?
I think you will rarely get it in here vs ATs, but I can see SB having QQ here a lot given our blockers. Also, if MP2 is 3betting light, he is probably doing it with an A blocker himself so there goes one of our outs. I think this is a true flip in the sense that we need to win about 40% of the time and we have about that much equity vs his range if MP2 folds an A.
I think it is close and could go either way, depending on how close we are to the end of the tourney and where a win here would put us on the leaderboard.
TPE Pro
June 14, 2012
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I’m with Marc. I can’t fathom folding AK here. It’s too early in the tournament to even think about laying it down IMO. This is a spot to build a stack without having to grind out a bunch of small pots.
I think it’s a trivial get it in spot at this stage of the tournament (bb 300 level), but I play about 50 tourneys a day and kind of autopilot spots like this.
October 21, 2012
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Killingbird said:
I actually think I would fold too. Our stack is fine when we fold, Im assumign we have a skill edge on the table, so even if we are flipping do we really need to take huge flips for 40bbs each when we can probably pick up chips without flipping later?
Plus with a guy running 9/6, flipping is the BEST we can hope for.
KB, I think we are right in that this is a mathematical flip (not 50/50, but having about a 40% chance to win when we need about a 40% chance to win) almost every time given all the info we have available (not even considering the HUD stats but even more so if we give them a little weight).
Where we might be wrong is thinking that we should pass on this flip because we can pick up chips without flipping later.
Maybe the pros are saying we should flip here because if we win…
1. we can pick up even more chips later because we can go even longer before we have to flip
2. we can choose to flip with shorter stacks later and not bust if we lose
3. we will be able to pwn (do they even use this word outside of sngs?) the bubble with a bigger stack whereas we cant with a shorter stack
I guess what I think I learned is that yes we have a skill edge, but we cant use it if we wither down to 20 bbs like everyone else.
Maybe rivermen loads up 50 mtts and flips on autopilot in spots like this so that he can get a big stack or bust in the mid stages of say 10 of these 50.
I think we are concerned about tournament life, but maybe that concept is overrated if you have good volume. If you lose your life in 40 of these and give yourself a great shot to go deep in the other 10, you will have a pretty good win rate.
Does this sound correct? Maybe this is what I have been doing wrong.
January 1, 2011
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I think this hand brings up an interesting debate of HUD stats vs table dynamics.
Starting with the HUD, we have a smallish sample(50 hands) on the villains. Looking at the stage of the tournament looks like antes have just stated coming into play within the last level. If our hands on these villains are from this tourney, then we have a sample of hands that are almost all pre ante. Many of videos on TPE adovacte playing very tight pre ante, perhaps the villains are like this. Our HUD numbers have the villains very tight indeed, but are these numbers accurate for this spot? I think we need to look further into table dynamics.
I'm not going to break down the dynamics as was done in here before. I'm just going to add that if we feel the opponents (especially SB) understand dynamics, then his shove range is very wide in this spot. If I'm up against a thinking opponent in the SB, I'm disregarding his HUD stats for this spot.
I'm happily getting this in, as I feel there are many hands in the SB's range we are ahead of.
May 30, 2012
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i really disagree with throwing away hud stats here, 60 hand sample is hugely sufficient for figuring out someones basic tendencies, sure these guys could actually be 4/4 or 16/14 and just be running hot/cold, but the odds of them actually being hyper aggressive or mega fish is actually very very very low based on that sample size. conditional probability and all
October 21, 2012
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I agree with duggs in terms of 60 hands being plenty to get an idea of how they play, but I agree with MNPuck that these hands can be disregarded at this point if they are mostly from the pre ante levels. We all have seen the stark difference in big dog from pre to post ante.
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