Big trend for those who wager: Teams with winning records or who are in first place in their last game before their bye week (especially if their bye week is later in the season) are 80% ATS. You just can’t find trends that simple that do that well. If the bye weeks are weeks 4-10 this year, just look for this in weeks 9 and 10. Good stuff.

I’m a 49er fan (and always had an affinity for UNC-C and Long Beach St. for obv. reasons). My old downstairs neighbor used to do PR for them, and he says Tomsula will be a good coach for them. We’ll see. Their over/under is 7.5 with heavy juice to the under. I’d take the over because if they go 8-8 again you still get +175 or so. The juice is never that good for regular season wins. This bet is better if you have a credit shop, though, because otherwise that money is locked up for 5 months.

Julian Edelman has the same last name as me so I pay attention to the Pats as well. The Julian Edelman drinking game has killed me the past 2 years, though. It was much easier when all he did was return punts and get hurt. I haven’t been keeping track, but if the Pats RSW total got bet down because of the Brady suspension, it seems like a good value play to take the over, because people overreact to everything.

I like the Rams over and the Cardinals under as well. Homerism may be creeping into that, though. And I’m worried the Raiders may actually be good this year, but I have faith they will fuck up somehow.

I used to work with a huge Dolphin fan when I lived in Tahoe, KB. They have some loyal fans. I think Tannehill is the real deal. After that London game last year he played a lot better.

For those in the States, where online poker is a gray market at best, do some research on daily fantasy. There are some shitty players out there, who spend their poker money on this because it’s “legal-er” than poker. And overcoming the juice isn’t hard, especially with deposit bonuses. Lots of resources out there. Some of you probably have referral links to share as well.

Speaking of which, Bovada will get even softer when the season starts, as people hit the table to either get even or spend their winnings. Sunday night will be that much better.