Stop & Go: Folding a Flush

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Stop & Go: Folding a Flush
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5 Responses to “Stop & Go: Folding a Flush”

  1. Sen

    Really interesting spot OTR as played. I feel like his AhXx combos are just ideal for the type of play he made, so I think I couldn’t find a fold with his sizing (even though it smells like pure value – but since you both are thinking players, that’s what he might wanna archive here) unless he makes it pot-sized or bigger. With the 6h on the turn, I feel like check-raising against two players left to act with AhQx, Ah5x, Ah7x, Ah8x and Ah3x seem like the perfect play. I would even include his JhTh and Jh8h combos here. OTR he might check his Jhh combos to induce a bluff or hope for you to make a marginal value bet with your 7xXx straights but I think most of the time he will go for a value/blocker bet with this exact sizing, as he can be sure to only get raised with your nutflushes but will miss value most of the time against any hands he beats because of this very wet board.
    Very boderline, I feel like the check-call and fold value may be close here.

  2. Foucault

    Thanks for the comment, Sen. If you’d like to argue that it’s close on the river, could you please post a river range for the Villain, as well as Hero’s equity against that range? As much as possible we want to move away from playing by feel and look for mathematical justification.

  3. Sen

    Hey Andrew, definitly great spot to discuss, these were just my initial thoughts. I am currently working on my recently set-up computer, I haven’t yet installed any equity software. Should be high on top of my priority list, though. I’ll post again as soon as I’ve run the numbers.

    Without running anything I tend to call river here. It’s very close, though – if you were in Skipper-Dawns position instead of closing the action OTT, I’d tend to fold, just because you are so much more unlikely to stab on a board like this with marginal hands or air than when beeing last to act and checked to.
    Just as a reminder (for myself), here are my ranges for villain on

    TURN: made straights with flush blockers (for value and as protection): 8h7x, 8x7h, 3h2h | some of his turned set combos: 6d6c, 6d6s also 5h5x | 50% of his AhXx combos, all AhXh nutflushes | JhTh, Jh9h | Th8h, 8h7h, 5h7h, 5h3h, 5h8h

    RIVER: I see him continuing with all blockerhands AhXx, all straights with a heart and most of his flushes. He would probably only check call his sets and straights.

    Feels like a very wide range, especially since you described villain as very solid an thinking. So I’ll run it again canceling out most of the marginal hands. Reason I believe he would bet so much, is that when you call flop a lot of your range should be AhXx, sets, straights, combo draws and obviously flushes. A lot of which he believes to get value from with his marginally better holdings when there is no 4th heart OTR. Also he has the perfect opportunity to two-barral with a bluff OTR with any AhX.
    What do you think?

  4. Foucault

    Sen,

    This is a good example of why you need to start your hand reading on the flop. You’re including some hands in his turn range that don’t make sense based on the flop action (AhX, 66). I also think it’s quite ambitious for him to value bet straights on the river (even low flushes seem questionable to me). What are the hands worse than a straight with which I’m calling river?

  5. kardi31

    Wow. Great video. This video has just shown me how far the gap is between me and and a good poker player.
    My question is : would you call the river against the opponent that you have no information about?

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