7 Responses to “Matthew “theginger45” Hunt Saturday Night Live HH Review (Part 4)”

  1. MadBaltic

    Have you ever thought about how often will a minraise work vs a 2.5-2.6bb open? Will he defend much wider when you minraise or will his range be pretty much the same? If the latter, then risking 2.5-2.6bb vs 2bb in the long term would be losing us so so much. Also, by making it bigger, we are giving villain better odds to shove on us, because it needs to work less for him now and our range is still pretty much the same.

  2. MadBaltic

    There is 21,25k in the pot, if we minraise we are risking 15 to win 36,25 so for us to break even this should work 41.37% meaning he would need to call with 58.63%. I can tell with ease, that he is not calling this wide, so we could actually minraise fold aces and still make a profit. If we now make it 25k instead of 20k we would be risking 20k to win 41.25k meaning we need this to work 48.48% (over 7% more in the long run). Most regs would just ship it in our face with a pretty much constant range, so we would be just folding and losing more, or if they do start flatting, we could just be check/folding almost every flop, because the move is most likely +chipev preflop anyway.

  4. theginger45

    For some reason the video won’t load for me so I can’t check out the specific spot you’re talking about right now, but it sounds like a blind vs blind hand. I have definitely thought about the factors you mention and they’re all good points, but it’s important to note that while the vacuum profitability of a minraise may be greater, it’s impossible to calculate mathematically a lot of the other reasons why I think it’s bad.

    These reasons include the fact that we are guaranteed to be playing the pot out of position, the fact that when we get to a flop our range is always going to be weaker than the big blind’s range, and the fact that minraising manufactures deeper effective stacks, which in some situations is exactly what we don’t want. Even if the preflop play were extremely profitable, if it leads to us losing a bunch of chips postflop a lot of the time, then that’s not going to be the best way to play the hand, especially if we want to be able to open raggy hands from time to time. It’s not like a heads-up match where we can minraise the button with 100% of hands vs certain opponents, because in that situation we get to play the hand in position postflop, which is a situation we’re always seeking out. In blind vs blind hands, we’re not looking to see too many flops.

    I think there’s certainly an argument for having a limping range blind vs blind – which would include a limp/fold, limp/call and limp/shove range – but I haven’t experimented with it enough yet to know what kind of hands I would do it with or what stack sizes. Blind vs blind play is a concept that is definitely far from solved, and it’s to some extent a question of personal preference, but I think you’ll find that even if the preflop play is profitable, minraising the small blind is not going to make you a lot of money in the long run.

  5. MadBaltic

    I agree that you could get into bad spots, but since the play is +chipev preflop, you wouldn´t even have to continue playing a single hand postflop, so you could even c/f aces after you minraise pre.

  6. theginger45

    I think that’s flawed logic. If it’s +EV preflop and neutral EV postflop, that would be true. However, if it’s marginally +EV preflop and significantly -EV postflop, it’s -EV overall.

  7. TheSuccessStory

    also, what you suggest madbaltic would be very exploitable by any reg..he would just have to realise that he needs to flat more vs you pre if it’s obvious taht you give up easily postflop..

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